
Rufus gets a kick out of studying weather modeling and apparently there are many models from which to choose. There’s a lot of science behind the models but they can be interpreted very differently, that’s where “art” comes in (Rufus appears to be quite good at interpreting these models even though he’s not a trained meteorologist). Because we’re at the edge of the Pacific Ocean and most of our weather comes from the west, surface weather data aren’t readily available (there are weather buoys in the ocean but it’s not like having 3,000 miles of land mass and cities collecting data). That means meteorologists have a difficult time interpreting what’s going on between land and the 35,000 foot jet streams. (My notes from Rufus’ presentation are a bit sketchy about how the polar and subtropical jet streams influence our weather, so I won’t attempt to explain it but you can find Wikipedia’s interesting analysis of weather forecasting at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_forecasting). The west coast also has less long-term weather data than east coast cities, making patterns more difficult to predict.
I have a new appreciation for the challenges inherent in weather forecasting. It’s like predicting the future with a few more scientific tools at our disposal. I’ll try to be more understanding when “they get it wrong” but I’ll still keep my gas tank full just in case it takes me longer to get home due to unexpected adverse weather conditions.
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